Analysis: How China strategies ran amok after first-lap chaos

The Chinese GP demonstrated once again that the simple ploy of having three tyre compounds available at each event has added a new dimension to the race weekend.

On a day when all 22 starters finished – an unusual event in any era and the first such occurrence since in the switch to V6 hybrids – 13 drivers used all three tyres.

The way the race played out served as a reminder of how the compound choices and the way each team deploys its allocation over the weekend can have a big impact on Sunday, and this time the fact that no dry tyres were used in a wet FP3 also played a role.

In Shanghai, one of the exceptions to the three-tyre strategy was Nico Rosberg, and he dared to be different by winning the race without actually using the softest and fastest of the available compounds. Of course that wasn't possible in the recent past in a fully dry race, since you had to use both of the two choices.

However, nobody really anticipated that it would happen under the current rules given that Q3 qualifiers have to start on the tyres they used in Q2, which by default are usually the softest of the three available compounds.

And yet Rosberg and Mercedes had the pace with which to sail through to Q3 by using the soft, ensuring that Nico would start on a tyre that could take him much further into the race than (at least) the nine drivers who qualified immediately behind him.

Given that Lewis Hamilton was consigned to the back of the grid, we appeared to be guaranteed an intriguing race. Daniel Ricciardo and the two Ferrari drivers were poised to run a reverse strategy to Rosberg with the supersofts used briefly at the start, and Nico set to use them at the end. It was anticipated by Pirelli that three sets of softs would be in play for the rest of the race.

In fact, the tyre supplier said before the race that both strategies would have identical outcomes, so it looked finely poised. After the red flag in Australia and Vettel's non-start in Bahrain we were at last set to see what Ferrari could really do.

Frustratingly, it was not to be. The first lap chaos, the puncture that Ricciardo picked up from the debris and the subsequent safety car period turned the race on its head.

Instead of seeing if anyone could really take the fight to Nico, we had a mixed-up field with drivers out of position and some quick guys fighting their way through.

It was entertaining stuff, and a great demonstration of the fact that despite the ongoing criticism F1 can still put on a great show. But what we didn't see was any kind of battle for the lead.

A race for Rosberg to lose

Of course Nico still had to get the job done, and things didn't get off to a perfect start when he was beaten away by Ricciardo.

After qualifying, he acknowledged that the soft tyre might cost him some momentum off the line, although he pointed out that the run to Turn 1 at Shanghai wasn't as long as at other venues. In the end, he was indeed caught out.

"I lost the start probably as a result," he noted. "I was the only guy with the softs, everybody else had supersofts, extra grip. That could have been a reason for losing out."

Of course all eyes were on what was going on behind as the Ferraris tangled, and Hamilton was caught up in the fallout.

Even with the Ferraris out of the picture, it would have been fascinating to see how long Ricciardo could have stayed in front. In the event he picked up a puncture early in the third lap, and Nico went sailing past. After the race he didn't even know that Daniel's tyre had actually disintegrated, assuming instead that he was suffering with early degradation.

The safety car that the debris triggered further changed the complexion of the race. Rosberg stayed out, as did others who started on softs, while Hamilton and Raikkonen gained back some of the time they lost with first lap nose changes, as they could slot into the pack.

Vettel was another to mitigate his losses. Jock Clear confirmed after the race that Ferrari had already determined that his front wing was so badly damaged that it would have to be changed at the first stop, and the team was able to win back a lot of time by doing the job under the safety car.

When the queue formed up behind the safety car Rosberg had some unexpected sights in his mirrors – Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso, Pascal Wehrlein, Esteban Gutierrez had all jumped up the order by not stopping.

Of the big players whose progress was likely to be of interest to Nico, Kvyat was sixth, Vettel 15th, Ricciardo 17th, Raikkonen 19th and Hamilton 21st. What an extraordinary opening few laps...

The race was now Rosberg's to lose, and thereafter he didn't put a foot wrong. Helped by the safety car running he stretched his opening stint out to 20 laps, letting everyone else do their stops before he came in.

He ran a tidy middle stint of 16 laps on a new set of softs, and then waited until closest pursuers Kvyat and Vettel made their final stops before coming in for a set of new mediums for the run to the flag.

"The soft held on surprisingly well," he said. "Again just I think the car was balanced really well, and the medium again was surprisingly good. I could push on that until the end, and just had a bit of front wear at the end of the stint. It felt great. Ricciardo also had a very good stint on the medium, I hear."

It looked like a demonstration run – indeed at times he couldn't see anyone in his mirrors or any backmarkers up ahead, even on the straights – but he didn't ease off.

"Never, I pushed all the way," Rosberg added. "First of all it was a great feeling out there, secondly Ricciardo got a puncture, and that was a good reminder that anything can happen.

"And also to cover safety cars, so that I can do an extra pit stop to cover off any eventualities. And also it was enjoyable out there. Why should I slow down?"

True Ferrari form not seen

In the end Rosberg finished 37 seconds ahead of Vettel, a margin of victory that obviously didn't reflect the true form of the Ferrari. Not only did Vettel have to battle his way up from his 14th place after the safety car, he had to do it with a car that had been damaged.

Like others who had been involved in contact, such as Kimi and Lewis, that affected the balance and thus the way the car used its tyres.

"Initially I thought I had to box straight away," said Vettel. "But it was actually OK. The steering wheel was a little bit off-centre, so I had a bit of damage all through the race. It was actually more difficult in left-handers than right-handers. Fortunately there's more right-handers here..."

His life was made a little more complicated when he damaged his replacement front wing in contact with Bottas. This time the team determined that there was no need to change it, and Vettel himself remained unaware of the damage, and he carried it to the end.

This was a charging performance by Vettel, and that cheeky double overtake in the pit entry when Nico Hulkenberg was holding up Carlos Sainz – perfectly legal if the guy ahead is a little tardy or fast asleep – was a reminder of the man's true class.

He was helped along by some clever strategy from Ferrari that saw him spend much of the race on different tyres to his immediate rivals. The car has proven itself to be more comfortable than some others on the softer compounds, and Ferrari took the clever decision to put him on supersofts at the first stop under the safety car.

He had saved a set by only doing one run in Q3 – a decision which he admitted had probably cost him time – but now it paid off. Putting them on just as everyone else was offloading the supersofts on which they started helped to give him the speed to get through the pack, and he was able to get a crucial 13 laps out of them before swapping to softs.

"We had a different strategy to most people with the supersoft tyre," he said. "Which helped me to clear the traffic and make good progress – which was fun. A lot of cars. I didn't count, but it felt like a lot! They just kept coming – but we managed to clear them, which was obviously essential."

At the end of the race he was again able to do his thing. Most of the significant players went to mediums, but Vettel (and Raikkonen) still had a set of new softs available. Vettel chased Kvyat down and they pitted together.

Crucially, the softs gave Vettel the extra grip which to pass the Red Bull on the out lap.

"I knew that I had the advantage on tyre warm-up and performance, especially on the first lap, so I went for it as hard as I could, and it paid off. I knew that afterwards it gets a little bit more tricky to just follow him, even though the tyres were quicker. Once I was ahead I just tried to control the gap until the end."

On his medium tyres Kvyat was some eight seconds down on Vettel at the flag. This was a strong performance from the Russian after a difficult start to the season, and while Vettel might not concur, most observers – including one Nico Rosberg – agreed that his opportunistic move at the start was perfectly legitimate.

It was also a hugely encouraging weekend for Red Bull at a track that on paper didn't favour the Renault power unit.

Ricciardo managed to recover to fourth after that frustrating puncture, while Raikkonen showed some real spark as he made it up to fifth, despite carrying damage that compromised his pace.

Hamilton's woes continue

And then there was Hamilton, another hampered from the first lap to the flag by aero damage. He started on the softs and Mercedes pulled off a clever trick by putting him on supersofts for one lap under the safety car, and then taking them off again, giving him the potential to effectively run the whole race on softs.

In the end he followed the trend and used the medium anyway for the run to the flag, which he took in seventh place.

"The front wing became undone and on the following straight got stuck under the floor and damaged the floor," said Toto Wolff. "It damaged the leading edge, and we lost a huge amount of downforce through a couple of corners, which made the car very light at the front, and gave him a feeling that the car was more damaged.

"It was so much down on aero that the car must have felt very, very difficult to drive, and as a consequence the tyres wouldn't last either. And this is what compromised the whole race."

All in all this was a fascinating race, with much action down the field. Let's just hope that in Russia we finally see a straight fight between two healthy Mercedes and two healthy Ferraris – and perhaps a pair of Red Bulls as well.