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Formula 1 Brazilian GP

F1 Form Guide: Brazilian Grand Prix

The last two Grands Prix in Brazil have been won by Mercedes drivers and it is four years since Max Verstappen was on the top step in Sao Paulo. Promising stats for the neutral. So, could we be in for another upset this weekend?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF21, Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21, and the rest of the field at the start

Well, if Verstappen continues the form that saw him achieve a comfortable 16th race victory in 2023 in Mexico last weekend, then probably not. Including the Sprints – of which there is another here – he has won 19 out of 24 events.

Two more wins are on offer this weekend and while anyone other than Verstappen is a long-shot, there is still plenty to watch out for from the front to the back of the field this weekend.

The track is medium-speed and high downforce, with a 1.2km-long uphill straight that makes engine power important, particularly for overtaking. Throw in unpredictable weather and the unexpected could happen.

POLE PERFORMANCE

If there is one part of the race weekend to bet against Verstappen then it is qualifying. As this is another Sprint race weekend, qualifying will run on Friday with just one practice session to set cars up ready. That always adds jeopardy.

Although Red Bull have still collected 12 poles this season, Ferrari have achieved six – including the most recent two in the US and Mexico. Mercedes is the only other team to have started up front, with Lewis Hamilton's pole in Hungary.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB19

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB19

Currently, there are storms predicted around qualifying time so that could play a major role in the grid order. And while Ferrari is a decent non-Red Bull bet at 6.60, a record fourth pole in Brazil for Hamilton has good value odds of 9.00.

SPRINT CHALLENGE

It is hard to see beyond Red Bull in the Sprints this year. They have won every one apart from Qatar – which was taken by Oscar Piastri – and the title-winning team is at 1.33 to sign off the Sprint season with five from six.

MAIN RACE

The main race could be a different picture, particularly if the rain predicted for qualifying upsets the grid. That said, overtaking is easier than at many circuits, so even an out-of-position Verstappen could climb through the field.

Hamilton, however, has the bit between his teeth with a 20-point margin to Sergio Perez in the battle for championship runners-up spot after the Red Bull driver's first lap exit last weekend.

A win for Hamilton – at odds of 8.40 – would really help him in that quest. Meanwhile, an upturn in form for Perez – who desperately needs a good result – could pay out, with the Mexican at a lowly 17.00 for the win or 2.70 a podium.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W14

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W14

Last year, the podium in Brazil did not feature a Red Bull at all – a situation that most recently occurred in Singapore – but that was mainly because Verstappen collided with Hamilton and ended up in sixth.

George Russell won for Mercedes last year and the team has secured a double podium in each of the last two events in Brazil. The odds of another Russell win are 19.00, while a double Mercedes podium is at 5.00.

In recent years, several podium finishers have come from low down on the grid. Carlos Sainz is one of them – coming from 20th in 2020 and from 7th last year. He is 5.20 for a podium this time.

One thing that Brazil can do is throw up some surprise podium finishers – even when it is dry. Pierre Gasly, for example, secured a shock second in 2019 and the odds of a similar podium upset this time are 100.00.

POINTS PLAYERS

Fernando Alonso tends to run well in Sao Paulo, finishing on the podium eight times, so although his Aston Martin has been falling down the order in recent races his talent on this track could bring it up. He is 2.75 for a top-six finish.

Past performances at higher downforce circuits that also have long straights – such as Silverstone and Spa – suggest McLaren could also recover momentum and secure top six places. Lando Norris is 1.20 and Oscar Piastri 2.01 to do so.

Meanwhile, Alex Albon has been ninth in the last two races and is at 2.37 to secure a hat-trick of top 10s. Daniel Ricciardo will also be looking to continue his strong form with AlphaTauri and is at 2.25 for another points finish.

CHANCE CHOICES

Safety cars are a near certainty in Brazil, with at least one deployment in five of the last six races. As a result, the odds of at least one safety car period occurring this weekend are 1.50, while the odds of none are 2.41.

A point for fastest lap would be handy for Hamilton in his challenge for second in the championship and he has clocked up more than any other driver this season – apart from Verstappen of course! The odds of another are 8.20.

Esteban Ocon has suffered more retirements than any other driver this season with a total of six DNFs, including three in the last six races. Despite that, the odds of another DNF for him are high at 6.00, with a classified finish at 1.12.

For more betting odds and the latest markets on this weekend’s Grand Prix and all Formula 1 races, head over to stake.com

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