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As the first upgrade packages emerge at the second pre-season test, the 2019 development war has officially begun - and Formula 1 history suggests that those who start behind usually stay there.
Pre-season testing is a time of uncertainty, extrapolation and mystery. You can find conviction in the predictable utterances from teams stressing the length of the season to come and that nothing is won or lost in testing.
But even though not a single championship point is given out for it, testing is the foundation upon which a season is built. And history suggests that if you start behind, more likely than not you will stay there.
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