Who will be IndyCar’s Third Man?

“Don't be so gloomy. After all, it's not that awful,” remarks Orson Welles’ character Harry Lime at one point in The Third Man, one of the finest films of the 20^th Century. And in IndyCar terms, being beaten only by two Penske-Chevrolet drivers is really pretty respectable in a year like this.

In simplistic terms, Team Penske has done everything in 2016 to avoid operational blunders and cover their backsides for strategic miscues, and so the team’s pace has been converted into results. Simon Pagenaud’s race engineer Ben Bretzman believes the team has had a smaller edge in pace this season compared with last; the difference has been the win sheet. Just three victories in 2015; nine so far in ’16.

Against that kind of consistency across all types of track, there have been few answers. Notable exceptions have been Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon’s domination of Watkins Glen and most of the Phoenix race, while Josef Newgarden could not have been more devastating in Iowa if he had slashed his rivals’ tires. And it is appropriate that these two are at the forefront of the battle to be best of the rest.

But who will emerge ahead? With double points available this weekend at Sonoma Raceway there are several drivers capable of jumping into the top three. 

Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing-Chevrolet

Currently 3^rd, 451 points

Let’s point out straight away that Dixie is actually capable of finishing second in the championship. Were he to win the race and Power finished 11^th or lower, the Ganassi driver would split the Penske drivers in the championship. And stranger things have happened in IndyCar, and especially at Sonoma. And were Scott to grab the win and all the bonus points for pole, leading a lap and leading the most lap, Power would need to finish ninth to hold onto runner-up spot.

Dixon is well capable of dominating the weekend in that manner. He’s the most accomplished driver on the IndyCar grid – even his peers wouldn’t deny it – and he has a pole and three wins at Sonoma on his résumé, the latter two victories coming in the last two years.

With pitlane order being set by the grid at the previous race, Watkins Glen polesitter Dixon will also have the best pit exit, and his crew are already pretty much infallible. Add into the equation his fantastic fuel-saving capability – and therefore race engineer Chris Simmons’ perma-option to slightly short-fuel the #9 car in order to jump him ahead of his rivals – and you start to appreciate how many bullets Dixon and Ganassi have in the chamber this weekend.

And remember, he has a remarkable record to keep; not since 2005 has Dixon finished the championship outside the top three. Offhand, I can think of only one record that comes close to matching that – Ted Horn’s nine straight top-four finishes at the Indy 500.

Helio Castroneves, Team Penske-Chevrolet

Currently 4^th, 451 points

Helio Castroneves has not found Sonoma Raceway to be a particularly happy hunting ground since his 2008 domination of the event. But it hasn’t been for lack of pace. His big letdown has been involvement in his own or other people’s incidents, and key to avoiding those problems will be to get himself on the front row.

It’s something well within his grasp as, aside last year’s problems, Castroneves traditionally qualifies in the Firestone Fast Six here. He was just a hair off Will Power’s pace in testing last week, and… let’s face it, he’s with this year’s star team, Penske. Helio has the chance give Roger his first 1-2-3 in the championship since 1994.

It’s been over two years since the Brazilian veteran won an IndyCar race, although only a yellow flag falling at the wrong time for his strategy prevented a victory in Detroit back in June. 

Despite his recent lack of success, Castroneves is close enough to Power on a personal level that were Will up against anyone other than a fellow Penske driver in the championship quest, Helio would definitely be generous enough to try and aid the Aussie’s championship cause, reciprocating Will’s efforts for him in 2013. But with Pagenaud’s current points tally ensuring the drivers’ championship is an in-house battle, expect Castroneves to go flat-out for victory this weekend.

And remember, since he’s got the same number of points as Dixon, all the rules about beating Power in the championship table apply to Castroneves, too. 

Josef Newgarden, Ed Carpenter Racing-Chevrolet

Currently 5^th, 446 points

If Josef has been distracted by the constant speculation over his future, he’s hidden it well. His partnership with race engineer Jeremy Milless has seen a remarkable progression over the past three seasons, and Newgarden has told Motorsport.com that he regards Milless as a genius.

Certainly their work at Sonoma has been admirable in recent times. Newgarden has been the closest to Power in outright pace in qualifying for the last two years, and remember, it was actually the Ed Carpenter Racing team who last year discovered that the harder-compound tires were the best way to go in the Firestone Fast Six. Unfortunately, they showed their hand too early, Power and Dave Faustino emulated ECR’s tire tactics, and Power beat Newgarden to pole by 0.15sec. Amazingly that is still the closest Newgarden has come to taking pole on a road course.

Nonetheless, the point remains valid: under normal circumstances, Newgarden is virtually guaranteed to reach the Fast Six in Sonoma and if his ECR pit crew remains as slick as it’s been through 2016, there’s no reason why Newgarden can’t beat Dixon and Castroneves and finish third in the championship. Some people might regard that as a Penske 1-2-3…

Tony Kanaan, Chip Ganassi Racing-Chevrolet

Currently 6th, 427 points

Until his car broke a toelink at Watkins Glen, Tony Kanaan was third in the championship, and while he wasn’t quite on teammate Dixon’s pace there, who was? Kanaan’s road/street course abilities are stronger now than in his pre-Ganassi/pre-2014 days, and while the Brazilian veteran might not start at the very front on these types of track, he’s there or thereabouts. And once he’s got his place in the top five, he’s like a vicious dog gripping a juicy bone – you try and take it from him at your peril.

Counting against TK, as he tries to make 25 points on his teammate and Castroneves in one race, is the fact that he’s harsh on tires (a major issue at Sonoma) and not too good at fuel-saving. But a late pitstop could render both those points as moot, should he be prepared to give up track position…

Like compatriot Helio, TK is desperate to end a long winless streak; the Ganassi driver’s extends back to the finale of the 2014 season. And the 2013 Indy 500 winner and 2004 IndyCar champion hasn’t won on a track containing right turns since 2007. But you’d never bet against him finishing on the podium on any type of course. And remember at Sonoma, that would be worth around 60, 80 or even 100 points.

Graham Rahal, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing-Honda

Currently 7th, 403 points

The best-placed Honda driver in the championship, Graham Rahal has never truly shone at Sonoma. His bravery is not in doubt – just stand on the outside of any corner on the course this weekend, and you’ll see and hear how early he gets on the throttle. This boy is happy to oversteer.

Unfortunately, that’s not the way to look after tires at Sonoma, and while he may keep them under him for a flying lap – hence his appearance in the Firestone Fast Six last year – he’s going to struggle to remain up front should he make it there.

Last year, Graham said Sonoma was the worst the car had been all year, his particular problem being traction. Race engineer Eddie Jones will doubtless have improved the situation; to what degree is anyone's guess, so the driver may still have to show a measure of restraint.

Could Rahal break into the top five in the championship? Yes… But reaching the top three, making up almost 50 points on Dixon, Castroneves and Newgarden will require all of them to eliminate each other.

Carlos Munoz, Andretti Autosport-Honda

Currently 8th, 402 points

Rahal’s chief rival for ‘best in Honda class’ is Carlos Munoz, the man who this year finished a close second in the Indy 500 for the second time in his short IndyCar career. Munoz is also needing a drive next year.

The Colombian’s record at Sonoma is far from glittering, but he can’t be ignored. Until last week’s test, no one was sure whether Andretti Autosport-Honda was up to the task of threatening the frontrunners, but the fact that Ryan Hunter-Reay was quickest is as positive a sign as one can glean from a test where no one is quite sure who was doing what and on what fuel level.

Munoz has narrowly edged Hunter-Reay in qualifying at Sonoma in one of his two previous visits here. Doing something similar again – and earning a shiny podium trophy – would remind team owners how many strong all-rounders are free agents at season’s end. And such a result could at least put Carlos into the top five in the championship.