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Analysis: Porsche's strategy for winning an 18th Le Mans

Porsche is aiming to repeat its 2015 performance at Le Mans and execute a 1-2 with its pair of 919 Hybrids - Sam Smith investigates the team's likely strategy.

#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley

#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley

Alexander Trienitz

Pole winners #2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Romain Dumas, Neel Jani, Marc Lieb back in the pit box
Andreas Seidl, Team Principal Porsche Team
#2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Romain Dumas, Neel Jani, Marc Lieb
Polesitter #2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Neel Jani
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley
#6 Toyota Racing Toyota TS050 Hybrid: Stéphane Sarrazin, Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi, Alexander Wurz
Alex Wurz, Williams Driver Mentor and GPDA Chairman
#7 Audi Sport Team Joest Audi R18: Marcel Fassler, Andre Lotterer, Benoit Tréluyer
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Mark Webber, Timo Bernhard, Brendon Hartley
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Timo Bernhard, Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley
#1 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Brendon Hartley
#2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Romain Dumas, Neel Jani, Marc Lieb
#2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Romain Dumas
#2 Porsche Team Porsche 919 Hybrid: Romain Dumas, Neel Jani, Marc Lieb

Porsche is the favourite to take an 18th victory at Le Mans, but only just. Its mission is made easier by the fact it has a proven winning product that has been refined and honed for 2016, when its chief LMP1 challengers – Audi and Toyota – have all-new packages.

The Weissach squad, headed by its team principal Andreas Seidl, is believed to be still eyeing the possibility of running to 14 laps per stint on fuel, but it will be a close call on all fronts.

"There have been some minor updates with a bit more margin with the theoretical calculation of 14 laps," Seidl told Motorsport.com on Friday.

"It is something we will try in practice, but in the end it comes down to the performance of the fuel cell and the pick-up performance.

"We managed 14 in the pre-test, the same as Toyota, but now we need to make the call for the race.

"From the calculations, we can do 14 laps, but again, this is something we work out today with all the experts and probably also live tomorrow during the race," concluded Seidl.

Poleman Neel Jani added: "We could do [14 lap stints]. But, you know, we have to see how the weather plays out, I think it will be anyway crazy, especially in the beginning of the race.

"The weather could go in any direction. We'll have to see how many laps and what happens."

Tighter than 2015

Last year, Porsche gained approximately five seconds per pit stop as it utilised its refuelling rig better than its rivals. The team used some form of system in 2015 that gave it an extra cushion, but this is believed to have been eliminated after the FIA put a stop to it.

The crucial aspect of enhancing the fuel strategy is how to get the last drop of fuel from the cell. Last season, Porsche opted not to attempt 14 laps, but what they could extract from the fuel cell was below the safety margins of making it back to the pits.

The big question this year at Le Mans is how much performance drop-off is needed to make the extra lap. It is estimated that doing a 14th lap during a completely green 24-hour race,  14 lap stints could theoretically save three re-fuelling stops (roughly 60 seconds each from pit-in to pit-out).

Those three minutes equate to approximately 0.4s per lap, and what Seidl and his strategists will evaluate is if this laptime compromise is worth it. This is believed to be the main reason why Porsche went for speed over a compromised pace last year.

As revealed by Motorsport.com, Audi is set to be able to match Porsche and Toyota on fuel stints from the Nurburgring onwards, as it will get more fuel due to the corrected Equivalence of Technology.

No 14-lap stints for Toyota

One man who knows more than most when it comes to managing fuel at La Sarthe is two-time  race winner Alex Wurz, who is present this year as semi-official reserve driver at Toyota.

The Austrian, who retired at the end of the 2015 WEC season, believes that both Porsche and Toyota are unlikely to choose a 14 lap stint strategy on fuel.

"Porsche could stretch it to 14 [laps for a stint], but that's going to jeopardise performance around the lap, which isn't their style," Wurz told Motorsport.com.  

"Depending on safety car situations, they might do it at one point, and they could certainly do it if it's wet.

"Everyone will aim for 13 [laps], Audi may be forced to do 12. Porsche can go a little longer and Audi is a bit shorter, Toyota is in the middle of the two."

Wurz confirmed that Toyota would not attempt to go 14 laps on a tank of fuel despite being theoretically able to do so. "That would eat too much into the performance," he said.

Maximum attack or caution?

Differing opinions on the best way to run the race from start to finish have been expressed by drivers in the opposing Porsche cars, which lock out the front row of the grid.

Brendon Hartley believes a conservative strategy is not the way to go at Le Mans, and both he and his teammates in the #1 car, Timo Bernhard and Mark Webber, know that a win is crucial in reducing the 41.5 point gap in their quest to defend the WEC title.

"I think no-one has a luxury to take it easy in the beginning, because whichever car pushes maximum the whole time and puts everything together will win the race," Brendon Hartley told Motorsport.com.

"I think you can't afford to take it easy and assume the others will run into troubles. There's no room to do that.

Webber concurs: "It's a long sprint for me. We have no reserve in mind really.

"It's only at the back-end of the race, if you're in a good shape, then maybe you can have a look at this, but not in the first 18 hours. You have to really go."

But Romain Dumas, one of the drivers in the polesitting (and championship leading) #2 car, believes a more refined approach will be needed this season.

"The race is never going to be decided in the first 14 hours, you can only lose everything," opined the Frenchman.

"This is not Daytona where you know that a safety car will put you back into the race at every hour. You must not lose everything.

Asked about Webber's 'maximum attack' comments, Dumas added: "I do hope they [in the #1 car] are going to attack! I think you need to find the right balance.

"Let's not forget there are two options for the championship. We've got quite a good gap, and they have no points - they need to win for sure. We need to take this into account."

Additional reporting by Erwin Jaeggi, Oleg Karpov and Benjamin Vinel

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