NASCAR Chase form guide: Now the play-offs get really serious

So far, the Penske Fords, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas and Hendrick Chevys clearly had the pace to outrun the smaller Chase teams – and they did so without taking disproportionate risks.

The mistakes that did happen – Jimmie Johnson's speeding penalties come to mind – did minimal damage to their points standings, although Kevin Harvick's much-feared #4 team did flirt with disaster last weekend but were already locked-in.

As the regular season suggested, Chris Buescher and Tony Stewart did not have the pace to outfox any of the favorites over a three-race stint, and neither really did Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray.

Dillon did sneak through with a brilliant Dover run, aided by trouble for biggest-name elimination Kyle Larson, making it that the four Chasers placed lowest through the regular season were the ones heading out.

This column fancied McMurray's chances to go for a Ryan Newman-esque run through the play-offs but, even without the engine blow-up, the gulf just seemed a little too big in Round of 16.

The cut-off point ended up firmly between the rather-relaxed 2014 play-offs and the very hotly-contested 2015 version, but most of the favourites had surpassed it already before Dover.

Assessing Round of 12 field

By the metrics of the season so far, the current Round of 12 field is very good – distinctly better than the same line-up in '14 and on level, if not slightly above the '15 line-up.

This is what helped them easily jettison the underdog teams, but the second segment virtually guarantees a shock elimination and makes a risk-averse strategy not fully viable.

The stakes will be raised here, especially because the bonus points have gone up in smoke and the regular-season stars no longer get a head start.

Round of 12 comparison

Comparing the two previous seasons, there are two main things to note – that Joey Logano had the biggest three-race points haul on both occasions, and that the cut-off targets were not far apart.

For '14, a 91-point requirement to advance represented a big step up from the Round of 16. For '15, the 96-point requirement was actually a step down – McMurray had scored 98 in the round before and didn't advance.

But, either way, while most of the big names showed they can put points on the board with ease, points-racing very likely won't be an option, because of the potential pitfalls of Talladega's plate race.

In fact, NASCAR's decision to take cut-off status away from 'Dega in 2017 could change the play-offs radically, because of the track's place in the calendar necessitates risk-taking in the two prior races.

The argument on whether or not the superspeedway has been disproportionately important to the Round of 12 outcome is up in the air, because Charlotte and Kansas have also wrecked a couple of championship campaigns – but that was almost certainly helped by the looming presence of Talladega.

2016 form guide

For all three tracks in the Round of 12, this will be the Sprint Cup's second visit in 2016, as the series had been to Talladega, Kansas and Charlotte in quick succession in May.

There's reason then to expect that the pecking order will have changed a bit since, although most of the leading contenders from then are likely to reprise their roles now.

Points at Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega in 2016

Keselowski was the driver scoring the most points in those three races, with decent enough results at Kansas and Charlotte – coupled with a Talladega win that was probably about as comfortable as those get.

But Talledega will be a dice roll, where drivers are unlikely to win/top-five on demand (although, again, Keselowski did the former in 2014), so it's about who impresses the most at the two other tracks.

Kansas and Charlotte are two 1.5-milers so the answer everybody should expect is Martin Truex. He looked a dominant car on both occasions, starting from pole – and while a likely Kansas win was undone by a loose wheel, he led 392 of the 400 laps at Charlotte.

If there's a favorite for a pre-Talladega lock on a Round of 8 spot, it's almost certainly Truex.

It's worth mentioning, also, that the bottom half of that three-race table are all very strong cars, resigned to their spots by an outlier of a bad day.

The top teams might be a little better at maximising points from this stretch than they were through the regular season, where points were meaningless for anyone with a win on the board. On the other hand, having a roulette like Talladega means that three good results should probably be good enough for anyone to advance, including the round's obvious underdog Dillon.

Charlotte

Top Rd12 drivers by average rating and wins at Charlotte (2014-)

If there is anyone who can stop the Truex train at Charlotte – and the Coca-Cola 600 suggests there's a good chance there isn't – Harvick is the likeliest candidate. Since 2014, he's not been out of the top 10 here, and has posted a smashing average finish of 3.2s.

Johnson and Logano have banked two dominant victories of their own in that time period, although the former's recent record at Charlotte is a bit patchy. Kurt Busch's last victory – with 252 laps led – dates back to 2010, but he's had a return to form at the track since rejoining Stewart-Haas.

Of the JGR camp, Kenseth and Edwards have won here recently enough – and while Hamlin has not, he's been reliable enough. But it's one of the two tracks Kyle Busch is yet to win at, and he suffered a pretty underwhelming run earlier this year.

Kansas

Top Rd12 drivers by average rating and wins at Kansas (2014-)

With Truex's domination and Kyle Busch's win, many will expect a Toyota landslide – and if the JGR Alliance is in good form, those two should probably head the charge, although Kenseth also seems a force to be reckoned with at the venue.

On the Chevy side, Harvick is seriously mighty at Kansas, with a win and three second places since 2013. Among the Fords, watch out for Logano, who posted top-fives in every race here in 2014 and 2015, including two wins – and only had a bad result earlier this season because he was caught up in a spin by Hamlin, whose own Kansas record is pretty sedate.

Other than that, Johnson probably deserves a mention – he hasn't had the out and out pace to log laps out front in a while here, but managed to win with a strategy gamble as recently as last year.

Talladega

Top Rd12 drivers by average rating and wins at Talladega (2014-)

The fact Elliott has the highest average rating in the field for the past five races at Talledega is no surprise – he only did one race, with a team that's clearly good at superspeedways, and managed to avoid getting wrecked.

The way Talledega is, some good cars are guaranteed to be torn up and some not-so-good cars are guaranteed to come away with a decent enough finish. But it's obviously not a complete lottery.

Track record suggests the Penske cars – with three wins in the last five races – will look good and, despite the absence of Dale Jr., HMS is worth keeping an eye on, too.

Toyota's recent numbers, meanwhile, aren't too great. Hamlin did win in 2014, but the combined total of laps led by all four JGR drivers and Truex are well below not just Penske or HMS, but even Johnson alone.

Good thing, then, that one or two Toyotas will probably book a Round of 8 spot in advance.