Stat analysis: Chevy's strange losing streak at Loudon

Starting with Mark Martin's New Hampshire win in September of 2009, Chevrolet embarked on a six-race winning streak at the Loudon venue – the victories all delivered by six different drivers. In that time, between the first and the last triumph of the streak, it has won 47.4 percent of Cup races at other venues.

Since Kasey Kahne's win in July of 2012, Chevy drivers have accounted for 45.6 percent of wins on other tracks – a very comparable figure. But at Loudon, the marque has gone from feast to famine, as the last seven races there were won by Toyota or Ford instead.

Marque runs at a certain tracks don't necessarily have to mean anything, because the Sprint Cup schedule has a lot of venues and it is inevitable that some of them will randomly develop something resembling a cycle. But a shift in fortunes this drastic is a glaringly unusual pattern, especially given that Chevy's line-up of top drivers hasn't exactly seen a massive overhaul.

Chevrolet's usual main man Jimmie Johnson led only three laps in the past seven Loudon races – a surreal number for a driver who has led an average of 34 laps per race over his 15-year career, and for a driver who has three Loudon wins and a field-best 19 top-10s.

Select Chevrolet drivers' five-year driver rating averages at Loudon...

His Hendrick teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kahne (as well as the now-retired Jeff Gordon) have fared better since then in terms of laps spent up front, but none have been particularly close to stealing a win.

On SHR's side, recent results have likewise been mixed. Kurt Busch – who led 102 Loudon laps for Furniture Row in July 2013 before that victory bid ended in a clash with then-SHR driver Ryan Newman – has only led one lap since joining his current team. Tony Stewart has also not had much recent luck in New Hampshire.

Harvick's chances

But SHR – and Chevrolet as a whole – might just have an ace in the hole in Kevin Harvick.

Harvick's last – and so far only – win at Loudon dates back to 2006, and he didn't have particularly good runs early in this decade, but he has been at the front for a combined 42 percent of the last three races.

Laps led at Loudon in 2014-2015...

Harvick was in contention in the Chase race in 2014 and in the regular season race last year, finishing third on both occasions, and then dominated much of the most recent race at the venue, only to run out of fuel.

There's also the fact that the most similar track to Loudon on the current schedule is probably Phoenix – another mile-long flat oval and one where Harvick absolutely runs the show.

A victory for Harvick would do quite a lot of good not only for the outlook of Chevrolet's somewhat uneven season, but for Harvick himself.

The #4 team has, of course, continued to impress since its championship campaign, topping the regular season in 2015 and putting itself in prime position to do so again this year.

But the wins have not come easy, and this should be one of the better opportunities to get one – and to add to the three bonus points from Phoenix.

After all, if a tyre gets cut or an engine blows up in the first round of the Chase, another three points could be the difference between elimination and survival.

Toyota and Ford leaders

If you've grown tired of seeing Brad Keselowski win, there's bad news – it's Keselowski who has been the most consistent at Loudon in the recent years, leading a lot of laps and racking up good results.

But it's hard to name him as the favourite because New Hampshire doesn't really deal in favourites, having produced 12 different winners in the past 13 starts.

The only repeat winner in that stretch is Kenseth, but he's probably not the strongest Gibbs driver at the track.

Select Ford/Toyota drivers' five-year driver rating averages at Loudon...

Instead, it's Denny Hamlin who boasts the best numbers, largely due to two fantastic runs in 2012, although Kyle Busch has arguably been the more consistently solid performer, his Loudon prowess sold short by costly tyre blowouts in 2011 and 2015.

And, not that it's a particularly strong predictor, but Kyle Busch, Hamlin and Keselowski have been the only winners of the past seven Xfinity Series races at Loudon.

Also worth mentioning is Joey Logano, who's won in New Hampshire both for Gibbs and for Penske and has consistently run up front in the recent events at the track.

New Chase additions?

New Hampshire's 12 different winners in 13 races should make for an encouraging sight for those not yet locked into the playoffs, but none of the recent outcomes were something you could classify as a shock.

None of Hendrick's winless trio are even close to being favourites. For Earnhardt, Loudon usually makes for a good points day, but not much more than that.

For Kahne, the #5 team's form has dropped off significantly, compared the heights of 2012. For rookie Chase Elliott, it's really hard to say – neither he, nor any of the other Xfinity regulars had much luck battling Cup guys in New Hampshire in the recent seasons.

But do look out for two other Chevrolet drivers. Firstly, Ganassi's Kyle Larson, with two top-three finishes at Loudon in 2014, could very possibly spring a surprise – although he didn't look nearly as strong at the venue last year.

Secondly, New Hampshire is arguably the best track on the calendar for Newman, what with his seven poles and three wins – even if his recent results there have been only okay.