Stat analysis: Cup stars hang tough against road-course 'ringers'

Under the previous Chase format, Sonoma used to be a pretty big deal – a good chance for those Cup runners with above-average road course pedigree to, perhaps, put themselves in contention for a wildcard slot in the playoffs.

But now that just a single solitary win is likely to be enough for any full-timer, there, in theory, should be a certain category of Cup drivers for whom Sonoma, and the series' other road course, Watkins Glen, are make-or-break.

Last year's Sonoma poleman AJ Allmendinger faces an uphill struggle to put himself into the top 16. His fellow open-wheel alumni – Casey Mears, Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart – all have pretty much zero chance to points race into the Chase.

In theory, June 26 should be circled and underlined multiple times on these drivers' calendars. But it probably isn't – and, in fact, there's a good chance it could end up a pretty ordinary day at the office for all the aforementioned.

It's a well established fact that NASCAR's elite have become perfectly capable when it comes to road course racing, leading to an erosion among the category's 'ringer' class.

But Sonoma is different. In the last 10 years, it has produced nine different winners – and eight of them aren't even remotely what you'd call a road course specialist.

In his seven starts at Watkins Glen in Cup, Marcos Ambrose – who joined NASCAR after two titles in Australia's V8 Supercars – only once ended up outside the top three. In that time, he was only once inside of the top three at Sonoma.

Mind, that's not an entirely fair picture to pain of the Aussie's Sonoma prowess, given that he lost a surefire win in 2010 because he couldn't get his car restarted quickly enough under caution. But there's very little doubt he was nowhere near as strong at Sonoma as he was at the Glen.

Allmendinger, who booked a Chase ticket at the Glen in 2014? He's never won at Sonoma and hasn't finished higher than seventh. That latter stat would probably not have stood if he got a clean race off of pole last year, but that he would've won is far, far from a given.

Formula 1 convert Montoya? Well, he did win at Sonoma, on his debut – but it was a fuel mileage win from 32nd on the grid. Awesome, super impressive, but hardly representative.

Sam Hornish, a driver who largely excelled in open-wheel racing on ovals, but ran plenty of road courses as well before his NASCAR switch? One top-10 in four starts.

Sonoma metrics since 2006 (road course ringers and converts in bold):

It is clear, both going by the metrics presented in the table and by his average Sonoma driver rating of 106.0, that Ambrose was among the top Cup drivers at the track during his tenure – and, perhaps, were he running for Penske or Hendrick, the stats would've been markedly better.

But as it stands, the Aussie did not enjoy Jeff Gordon or Kurt Busch levels of excellence at Sonoma. And yet he's by far the best of the recent crop of circuit racing converts.

As for the ringers, only Boris Said (and, depending on your definition of a 'ringer', Terry Labonte) even cracked the top 10 since 2006, despite the not insignificant number of famous road course guests that Sonoma has seen in that time. Of those, only Mattias Ekstrom, one of the finest touring car drivers of the modern era (if not of all-time), got to lead a few laps.

The regulars

Among Cup regulars, there are two serious heavy-hitters when it comes to Sonoma – both drivers who haven't always been in top machinery in the past few years, but have always ran like it at the Californian venue.

Clint Bowyer's one of them, and his rating delta of +28 is a serious cause for optimism. Bowyer's transitional year between MWR and SHR has been more or less a write-off so far, but he's just too good at Sonoma to not be considered at least a dark horse.

Ominously, the other driver is Kurt Busch, whose recent runs at Sonoma have been outright phenomenal. Considering the run of form Busch is on now – and considering his recent performance at another very good track of his, Pocono – he's the likely favourite.

Allmendinger aside, there are no other midpack-to-front drivers who could be regarded as Sonoma specialists – but it could be viewed as an above-average venue for Martin Truex, who won with an eight-second margin in 2013, and, impressively enough, Jimmie Johnson.

Five-year driver rating averages at Sonoma (2016 race winners):

On the other end of the table is most of Joe Gibbs Racing – despite the fact that, in Kyle Busch, the team has the reigning winner of the race. Busch is very up and down, while Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth have flat-out never gelled with Sonoma.

It's also a pretty bad track for Brad Keselowski, which is a bit of a surprise, considering how well he usually seems to do at Watkins Glen.

New Chase additions?

When it comes to drivers who could break into the Chase at Sonoma, Allmendinger is the name you'll hear most often – and that's for a very good reason. His first few years at Sonoma might not have been excellent, but he's not been off the front row at the venue ever since joining JTG Daugherty.

Five-year driver rating averages at Sonoma (others)

The focus will rightly be on Allmendinger – and he has by far the best shot at it among former open-wheelers. Still, Tony Stewart should not be counted out either – he's had more than his fair share of good days at Sonoma in the past.

There's also two good shouts on the Hendrick Motorsport side. For one, Kasey Kahne has shone at Sonoma in the past and could really, really use another good run.

And then there's Chase Elliott. Yes, he has no prior experience at Sonoma – which is why he's opted to run the K&N race on Saturday – but he's on a rich run of form and has proven himself a very capable road course driver in the past.