Opinion: And then there were two - what next for LMP1?

Ever since the news of what we now know as ‘diesel-gate’ erupted on 18 September 2015, it felt as if Audi’s days in the top-flight of sportscar racing were numbered.

Looking back, the VW Group cutting back to two entries apiece for its Porsche and Audi brands for the 2016 edition of the Le Mans 24 Hours – at the time presented as a prudent choice made in the name of cost-saving – seems like a precursor to Wednesday’s announcement.

Not only was having two competing brands in the LMP1 division becoming an unaffordable luxury for a company saddled with billions of dollars’ worth of fines, but the whole saga heralded a shift in attitudes in the road car industry against diesel; investing millions in developing diesel racing cars was clearly no longer sustainable.

But, while the news itself was hardly unexpected, the timing most certainly was. Conventional wisdom had it that Audi would complete one more season before bowing out at the end of the existing rules cycle – a farewell tour, if you will, and of course one last bid at Le Mans win number 14.

This seemed logical enough to most, given that the increase to 10MJ of hybrid power in the regulations (something Audi is said to have fought vigorously against) would have made diesel technology a less competitive proposition by forcing the addition of a second MGU, adding weight.

Instead, the Ingolstadt shocked the entire motorsport fraternity when it put out its press release confirming what many of us feared we would be reading a year from now: Audi is out.

#7 Audi Sport Team Joest Audi R18: Marcel Fässler, Andre Lotterer, Benoit Tréluyer

Photo by: Vision Sport Agency

Two years is a long time in motorsport

What a turnaround compared to two years ago, when Porsche had just arrived in LMP1 and Nissan was promising to shake up the establishment with its radical 2015 entry. Others, such as BMW and Jaguar, were also rumoured to be on their way (or, rather, on their way back).

But, Nissan’s doomed experiment fell by the wayside after a single appearance at Le Mans, while BMW and Jaguar – since joined by Audi – were instead seduced by Formula E, convinced that full-electric cars, not hybrids, are the future.

Of course, it should be pointed out that WEC survived with two manufacturers before (in 2012 and 2013, when it was just Audi and Toyota and a bunch of privateers in LMP1) and there’s no reason why it can’t do so again, at least temporarily.

But ‘survive’ is the operative word here. A class with only two major competitors exposes itself to the risk of the competition becoming imbalanced and the races predictable. Races as exciting as Fuji would likely become a thing of the past.

A third LMP1 manufacturer is clearly needed going forward, but no obvious replacements for Audi are forthcoming.

Why? As Toyota’s Anthony Davidson alluded earlier in the year, the relentless advance of hybrid technology has caused an all-out spending war between the LMP1 manufacturers. And this has reached a point where no one else seems to be interested in joining the party.

You know something is amiss if Peugeot – arguably the most logical candidate to join Porsche and Toyota in LMP1 – baulks at the costs of a renewed assault on Le Mans, where it has won three times.

#9 Team Peugeot Total Peugeot 908: Alexander Wurz, David Brabham, Marc Gene

Photo by: Eric Gilbert

A different way to achieve efficiency

So, it would appear that some fresh thinking is required. If developing a hybrid system to match the established players isn’t viable for a newcomer, there needs to be an alternative way to achieve LMP1 laptimes without shelling out big bucks on a technology that seems to be losing its relevance as an R&D platform, even if hybrid cars are still booming in the road sector.

According to Peugeot’s technical chief Bruno Famin, one way to do this would be a dramatic reduction of the minimum weight in LMP1, allowing teams to try to do what Porsche did in 2006 to 2008 – when it took the fight to Audi in America with its LMP2 class RS Spyder.

Clearly, this would have to be done outside of the new-for-2017 LMP2 rulebook; instead, the LMP1-L class (essentially a lame duck class now Rebellion has chosen to step down to LMP2) could become a home for the latter-day RS Spyders – perhaps with DRS and the other associated aero benefits announced at La Sarthe this year.

Then, it would be down to the FIA and ACO to keep tweaking the rules until both LMP1-L and LMP1-H cars were capable of being in the mix for outright honours.

Of course, if it became cheaper to win without hybrids than with, it could signal the end for energy recovery in LMP1, but maybe that isn’t such a bad thing if you look at the bigger picture.

#7 Penske Racing Porsche RS Spyder: Romain Dumas, Timo Bernhard

Photo by: Richard Sloop

Have hybrids had their day?

Energy recovery was introduced to the ACO rulebook in 2011, and first exploited in 2012 – and with Toyota, Porsche and Nissan all signing up and approaching the rules in their own way, the result was that WEC could boast technical variety like no other series.

But this season, Toyota and Audi ditched the supercapacitors and flywheels respectively in favour of aping Porsche’s lithium-ion battery solution (with Audi gone, the petrol/diesel variation is also out of the window).

Essentially, the manufacturers have converged on the ‘ideal’ solution for hybrids, and no outsider can justify the astronomical cost of trying to catch up several seasons’ worth of development of this technology, which now appears to be entering the realm of diminishing returns.

What’s therefore needed is a shake-up – whether along the lines of Peugeot’s proposals, perhaps a low-cost common hybrid system or something else entirely – that would allow a new manufacturer to arrive on the scene and challenge Porsche and Toyota without having to spend colossal sums on trying to beat them at their own game.

After all, there’s no intrinsic reason for Le Mans to be a race that requires hybrid power to win. Energy recovery should be a means to an end, not an end in itself.

The landscape has shifted dramatically since the dawn of WEC in 2012 – and now the series must adapt to ensure it remains as strong has it has been the last four years.

#8 Audi Sport Team Joest Audi R18 e-tron quattro: Lucas di Grassi, Loic Duval, Oliver Jarvis

Photo by: Audi Communications Motorsport