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Why Monza improves Mercedes' odds against Ferrari
Conventional wisdom suggests Ferrari should repeat its Spa form and win the Italian Grand Prix comfortably, but dig a little deeper and there are several aspects to the Monza circuit that indicate Mercedes has a fighting chance of producing an upset.
Monza is a step beyond Spa in terms of its power demands, with 70% of the lap spent at full throttle in Italy, compared to 57% in Belgium. Monza also lacks the challenge of balancing low downforce with the kind of twisty second sector that Spa features - and where Mercedes excelled last weekend.
So, what are the chances of Mercedes turning the tables on Ferrari and denying the pre-race favourite a first Monza victory since Fernando Alonso won here in 2010? According Lewis Hamilton, it's going to be "very tough" - but the circuit configuration does at least give him a bigger glimmer of hope.
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