Season preview: Why Toyota starts as WEC title favourite
Porsche may have monopolised the FIA World Endurance Championship titles of the past two years, but it's the German marque's LMP1 rival Toyota that begins 2017 as favourite, says Sam Smith.
Photo by: Toyota Racing
Despite vast changes in many areas, there will be an added purity to the racing in this year's WEC title race, as Toyota takes on Porsche to try and break the German giant's hegemony in both the championship and the Le Mans 24 Hours over the last two seasons.
There is no 'third way' now in LMP1 after Audi's departure, and both the current LMP1 protagonists now have concentrated aims and objectives for the season ahead.
For Toyota, it is definitely the biggest season in recent memory as it readies the evolved TS050 Hybrid.
After a season of experience with the new direct-injection turbo engine and battery storage system in 2016, the Japanese manufacturer should be starting the year as favourite.
This is because the Porsche 919 Hybrid, an older design, will stand to lose out slightly more with the new-for-2017 aerodynamic regulations changes.
These modifications see front and rear aerodynamics trimmed to stifle aero grip and a reduction to just two 'aero kits' allowed for the 2017 season.
This is expected to benefit Toyota, which has previously majored on low-drag configurations - but for the now infamous ill-luck at Le Mans last season, it would have registered that much desired La Sarthe victory that has consistently alluded it.
Last season, Toyota struggled to ascend the development curve on higher-downforce tracks to reach any kind of parity with their VW-owned competitors.
But with 12 months' experience and a slight assist from the aero rules in their armoury, the favourite tag seems deserved. But it is only a very slight edge.
Reinforcements at Porsche
With Nick Tandy, Andre Lotterer and Earl Bamber strengthening the Porsche driver squad, scoring a hat-trick of both Le Mans and WEC titles will be an intoxicating incentive for the Weissach concern in 2017.
Lotterer in particular, arguably the defining endurance talent of the last decade, will be a major boost for Porsche. The other full-time newcomers, Tandy and Bamber, have already shown extraordinary skill in winning Le Mans in 2015 with teammate Nico Hulkenberg, while Neel Jani and Brendon Hartley are proven benchmark performers.
However, the biggest asset Porsche has, and has had since the inception of its LMP1 programme, is Timo Bernhard. A lynchpin of consistency, application and largely error-free racing, Bernhard is as close to an irreplaceable human resource as there ever has been in this, the ultimate motorsport team game.
Porsche has deployed the first significant chess piece by electing to use its low-drag Le Mans aero package for the season opener at Silverstone, and also at Spa in May.
This ought to hand Toyota a major pace advantage for the first two races of the year, but Porsche will no doubt he hoping its decision pays dividends later in the year, with more time to work on its high-downforce package to be introduced from the Nurburgring onwards.
Toyota's Le Mans gamble
Perhaps one of the biggest questions relating to Toyota's quest for Le Mans glory is if the third entry will truly pay off.
It would be fairytale stuff if the Japanese marque emulated Porsche's 2015 victory by winning with its third car. The story would have everything – risk, redemption for Nicolas Lapierre, and a win for Stephane Sarrazin after four runner-up places over the last decade.
The third TS050 Hybrid will, Le Mans apart, only be seen at Spa, where it is expected to be a low-drag laboratory for final significant data-gathering ahead of the big one in June. This is no frivolous exercise to simply increase the team's numerical advantage, though.
Ask Porsche team boss Andreas Seidl how taxing and logistically challenging running three cars at Le Mans is, and he'll take a deeper than usual breath.
Another aspect which should be a boon for Toyota is the reduction in tyres available for the 2017 season. Although not applying at Le Mans, teams will now have just 18 tyres for qualifying and six-hour races.
This means extra focus on successfully double-stinting the Michelins, something which Toyota excelled at last season, helping the team to scoop a memorable home win at Fuji.
Jose Maria Lopez joins the Toyota cast in 2017, replacing Sarrazin as a WEC full-timer. The Argentinian WTCC champion has orchestrated a change in career direction well, racing for two manufacturer-backed programmes in WEC and Formula E.
While his single-seater efforts have as yet gone unrewarded, the word from inside the Toyota camp is that he has a fearsome turn of speed in an LMP1 car and will quickly get up to speed with teammates Mike Conway and Kamui Kobayashi, who were both excellent in 2016.
Meanwhile, the Le Mans winners that weren't, Sebastien Buemi, Anthony Davidson and Kazuki Nakajima, will be more determined than ever to right the wrong of that surreal June afternoon last year, with Davidson claiming the loss has made him more motivated than ever.
LMP2: The start of a new era
The new dawn for LMP2 racing in WEC this season will test teams and drivers like never before.
With more powerful engines, extra downforce and 10 percent less drag, the new LMP2 machines will, conditions allowing, easily get into 3m26s territory at Le Mans in June.
This step change in LMP2 capability means that the silver-categorised drivers and their ability to manage the cars will be crucial for their mandatory 75 minutes (two stints) behind the wheel.
Physical preparation will be enhanced this season, and so will the ability to develop a more aggressive style on cornering due to the peakier power band of the engine.
The power is indeed much greater this season in LMP2, with the new 4.2-litre V8 Gibson Engineering unit providing 500bhp. Handling the power, especially in greasy or wet conditions, is sure to be paramount on occasion this season.
All of the teams will use Dunlop rubber that was developed on the LMP1 privateer cars last year, and a new tyre dimension on the fronts has been implemented for 2017.
Managing the new range of tyres will be crucial. Like their more powerful LMP1 big brothers, the LMP2 cars will be limited to 18 tyres for qualifying and the race, and a choice of two compounds - between soft, medium and medium-plus - has to be made by the round.
It is an all-ORECA affair on the chassis front, and there is a two-by-two feel to the entry list with Manor, Jackie Chan DC Racing (JOTA Sport) and Signatech Alpine joined by Rebellion Racing, which steps down from LMP1, and TDS Racing, which steps up from ELMS with support from G-Drive.
Signatech will only introduce its second car for May's Spa round, meaning nine cars will take to the track this weekend at Silverstone.
Choosing a title winner is not easy, but the standout crew appears to be that of the #36 Signatech car, with proven winners Nicolas Lapierre and Gustavo Menezes joined by Manor convert Matt Rao.
However, the Roman Rusinov, Pierre Thiriet and Alex Lynn combination aboard the #26 G-Drive-branded TDS car should be challenging for honours from the very start too.
GTE Pro: Porsche back to win
The GTE Pro category will be as ferociously contested as ever in 2017, thanks to a streamlining of the tyre regulations. and a new automated Balance of Performance system.
An identical cast, at least in terms of manufacturers, returns this season, but as well as Aston Martin, Ferrari and Ford, Porsche is back with a pair of fully-fledged factory entries.
Perhaps the most significant change for the new term though is that the eight-car grid will be engaging in a full world title fight in 2017. Out is the old World Endurance Cup and in is the FIA World Endurance GT Championship.
To control in-season tyre development, the powers that be have limited tyre choice to three specs of rubber for the entire season. Like the LMP1 cars, the GTE Pro entries will also have four full sets and two odd tyres to use in qualifying and the race.
Initial indications point to Porsche's factory return with its striking new mid-engined Porsche 911 RSR being a successful one, as Michael Christensen and Frederic Makowiecki led a 1-2 of fastest Prologue times in Monza a couple of weeks ago, in the #92 and #91 cars respectively.
It seemed a significant advantage, due to the Weissach-built cars running high-downforce aero compared to some competitors using slipperier bodywork. Ford was the closest challenger with the #67 car, one of those using a lower-drag kit.
Andy Priaulx and Harry Tincknell, the pair that took back-to-back victories at Fuji and Shanghai last season, will be joined by former LMP2 star Pipo Derani for the first three races of the campaign. Olivier Pla and Stefan Mucke again team up in the sister #66 car, joined by Billy Johnson for the early races.
Aston Martin has also added a Brazilian driver to its ranks, as official Dunlop development driver Daniel Serra – son of former Fittipaldi and Arrows F1 driver Chico – joins Darren Turner and Jonny Adam in the #97 Vantage for the start of the season, while Richie Stanaway has been recruited to assist reigning class champions Nicki Thiim and Marco Sorensen in the #95.
Ferrari has come off the back of a tumultuous winter, one in which its star driver Gianmaria Bruni departed the Prancing Horse in favour of a berth at Porsche - although the Italian won't be allowed to race in the States until July, and can't race in WEC at all this season as part of his exit deal.
Bruni, so long the GT benchmark performer, has been replaced in the #51 488 GTE by Alessandro Pier Guidi alongside James Calado, while Sam Bird and Davide Rigon again pair-up in the #71 car.
The GTE Am class may be relatively light on numbers, with only five cars entered for the season, but all three manufacturers represented in the class have realistic title ambitions.
The favourites appear to be the regular #98 Aston Martin trio of Paul Dalla Lana, Pedro Lamy and Mathias Lauda, but they will face stiff opposition from the Spirit of Race Ferrari 488 GTE, which can boast ex-Audi DTM ace Miguel Molina on its driving strength.
Porsches from Gulf Racing and Proton Competition, as well as another Ferrari 488 from Singapore-licenced squad Clearwater Racing, make up the class.
For the glass-half-empty brigade, who immediately cast doom upon WEC post-Audi's withdrawal, there will be a helpful and hearty top-up coming this season.
Porsche versus Toyota has enough effervescent potboilers and probable script twists - combined with plenty of tight battles in LMP2 and GTE - to make it another season not to be missed.
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